Breaking news dominated a recent episode of The Accounting Podcast as hosts Blake Oliver and David Leary analyzed the Supreme Court’s landmark decision striking down Trump’s global tariffs. But the conversation quickly turned to what this means for accounting firms: a massive opportunity to help clients claim refunds on $133 billion in tariffs already paid.
The episode also digs into why taxpayers are losing trust in AI for tax preparation, how law firms are hiking rates to offset AI-reduced billable hours, and why human connection remains the profession’s secret weapon in an increasingly automated world.
A $133 Billion Opportunity Knocks
“The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs in a six to three decision,” Blake announced at the start of the episode, barely containing his satisfaction at having predicted this outcome in previous episodes.
The court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act doesn’t authorize the president to set or modify tariffs, which are a form of taxation. Chief Justice Roberts, writing for the majority, emphasized that tariffs require clear statutory authorization from Congress, something the emergency powers act doesn’t provide.
But US businesses have already paid $133 billion in these now-invalidated tariffs. And while the court didn’t lay out a specific refund mechanism, those funds are potentially recoverable.
“I think there’s a big opportunity,” Blake said. “Smart accountants are going to jump on this.”
The opportunity mirrors the Employee Retention Credit (ERC) and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) work that kept many firms busy during the pandemic. Firms will need to help clients identify affected entries, determine liquidation status, quantify refund amounts, and support administrative claims. If accountants charged even a small percentage fee for this service, Blake estimates it could generate “$1 billion to $10 billion in services revenue.”
David warned tariff refund mills will pop up just like ERC mills did, urging accountants to “beat them to the punch” by proactively reaching out to clients who import goods.
The situation remains fluid. Trump announced plans to impose new 10% tariffs under a different authority, using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. But for now, accounting firms have a huge opportunity to deliver value to clients who’ve been paying these tariffs.
Why Taxpayers Are Backing Away from AI
While accountants scramble to understand tariff refunds, they’re also watching taxpayers lose faith in AI for tax preparation.
According to Invoice Home’s latest survey of 2,000 US tax filers, only 37% would consider using AI to file their taxes instead of hiring a professional. That’s actually down from 43% last year, despite all the AI hype.
“I think people are getting burned,” Blake observed. “The more you use AI, the more you recognize its failings.”
The generational breakdown shows younger taxpayers remain more open. Half of millennials and 46% of Gen Z would consider AI tax prep. But even they’re growing skeptical as they gain real experience with AI’s limitations.
Blake has a similarly nuanced relationship with AI. He described using ChatGPT to draft legal agreements with “flawless” results, completing in minutes what used to take hours. Yet he readily acknowledges that taxes are different. “Small errors can compound and create big problems.”
This declining trust should reassure tax professionals worried about being replaced. Taxpayers seem to understand intuitively that tax preparation requires expertise and accountability that algorithms can’t yet provide.
The $3,400-Per-Hour Question
Meanwhile, the legal profession is showing accountants the problem with simply jacking up rates when AI reduces billable hours.
Top partners at elite law firms now charge up to $3,400 per hour, with some niche specialties pushing $6,000. Partner rates jumped 16% last year among the 50 largest firms. Even junior associates can run clients $1,400 per hour.
“If there’s less work, there’s fewer billable hours, and they’ve got to make up the difference somehow,” David acknowledged.
But Blake sees disaster ahead. “Businesses are going to say, wait a minute, why am I paying $3,400 an hour for legal work that’s being done by AI?” He can now draft his own legal agreements using a $30-per-month ChatGPT subscription—work he previously would have paid lawyers to handle.
The absurdity peaked with news that KPMG Australia fined a senior partner $7,000 for using AI to complete an internal AI training exam. The same firm that’s publicly committed to spending $2 billion on AI globally.
“If you know how to use AI to cheat on the test, you’ve passed the AI test,” David pointed out. “Obviously, you have the skills to use the AI.”
The contradiction perfectly captures professional services’ confused relationship with artificial intelligence: desperately embracing it while simultaneously punishing those who use it too effectively.
The Power of Human Connection
The episode’s most compelling segment came from David’s interview with Dawn Brolin about the Accounting Cornerstone Foundation, which helps accountants attend their first professional conference.
The foundation raised about $45,000 last year and sent 11 people to conferences—each one potentially life-changing. But it’s not just about money. They help recipients overcome travel anxiety, select sessions, and find their tribe in the profession.
“We get on a Zoom with them,” Dawn explained. “We talk through their anxieties. We give them travel tips.”
One recipient has since become active on social media, attended more conferences, and regularly sends thank-you letters. His life changed because he met people who understood his challenges.
“AI will never replace human interaction,” Dawn emphasized. “It will never replace the human touch.”
This stands in sharp contrast to how many firms actually treat clients. David described his experience with his own accounting firm. “Subject line: ‘Reminder you have outstanding task.’ And then I open the email in a giant font that says ‘Outstanding Task to Complete.’ It’s a horrible experience. It creates anxiety.”
Compare that to Intuit’s new TurboTax campaign offering free Uber rides to their offices. They understand customer experience in a way many accounting firms don’t.
“Accounting firms focus on their internal processes too much and not the customer experience,” David argued.
Focus Time Is the Real Productivity Crisis
A Hubstaff study cited in the episode found that average workers only get two to three hours of true focus time daily without meetings, messages, or tool-switching.
The productivity struggles “weren’t about effort,” the study found. “It’s about constant disruption.”
Workers use an average of 18 apps each day. Hybrid teams report the least focus time (31%), while in-office teams get slightly more (45%). The differences are smaller than expected, suggesting the problem isn’t location; it’s how we work.
Even AI adoption isn’t helping. Despite 26% of firms now using generative AI daily (up from 3% three years ago), it hasn’t meaningfully changed how employees spend their time.
Looking Ahead
The paradoxes explored in this episode reveal a profession in transition. Taxpayers are losing trust in AI just as its capabilities advance. Law firms are raising rates to offset efficiency gains, creating an unsustainable value proposition. And the most transformative professional experiences still happen through human connection, not algorithms.
Here are the top three takeaways for accountants:
- Jump on the tariff refund opportunity before the mills do. This could be the next ERC-sized revenue opportunity for proactive firms.
- Don’t follow law firms down the path of inflating rates to maintain partner lifestyles. Clients with access to the same AI tools will eventually revolt.
- Invest in human connections and customer experience. Sometimes the most valuable service is simply helping someone find their professional community.
As Dawn reminded listeners, “There isn’t any competition in accounting” when professionals support each other. The same collaborative spirit should guide how the profession approaches AI—as a tool that enables more human connection, not a replacement for it.
Thriving firms use AI for efficiency while doubling down on relationships, advisory services, and the judgment that no algorithm can replicate. Listen to the full episode of The Accounting Podcast for complete coverage of these stories and more insights on navigating the AI-augmented future of accounting.
