CBIZ stock has lost half its value in the past year. Starbucks just killed its AI inventory counting tool after nine months of miscounts. And Microsoft, after investing $13 billion in OpenAI, had to cut off its own engineers from AI coding tools because costs went through the roof.
These stories from the latest episode of The Accounting Podcast paint a picture of where the accounting profession is heading, and it’s not what private equity investors or AI vendors promised.
CBIZ’s Stock Tells a Story About Private Equity’s Future
CBIZ is the only publicly traded accounting firm in the U.S., so its stock price is the closest thing we have to a market report card on the profession’s consolidation strategy. Right now, that report card shows failing grades.
“The stock price of CBIZ, Inc. today is $34.68. That is down 51% over the past year,” host Blake Oliver noted during the episode. When CBIZ bought Marcum at the end of 2024, the stock was at $78. It hit $90 in early 2025, then crashed to about $27 by March before recovering slightly.
What makes this even more interesting is that CBIZ isn’t alone. Co-host David Leary asked Blake to pull up Intuit’s chart for comparison. “Similar chart,” Blake confirmed. Intuit is down 53-54% over the same period. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 28%.
The problem is what’s behind the stock price. CBIZ forecasts only 2% – 5% revenue growth for 2026. “That’s less than inflation. So basically, no growth,” Blake explained. “Why would investors be excited about buying stock in a company that’s not really growing much?”
Blake sees a more serious threat to large firms from smaller, more nimble competitors. “The larger the organization, the harder it is to change a business model or to integrate new technology,” he said. “I see smaller, more agile firms becoming a real threat to the large accounting firms. The smaller ones can integrate AI into their systems and switch their billing models.”
The math is simple but meaningful. AI lets a 10-person firm work like a 100-person firm. The traditional advantage of midsize firms (having an expert for everything) disappears when smaller firms can use AI to expand their capabilities.
Private equity firms typically look for efficiencies, not complete reinvention. “They figure out how to get marginally more efficient. They don’t completely reinvent the business model. That’s not what private equity is all about,” Blake explained.
When AI Meets Reality: Starbucks and Microsoft Learn the Hard Way
Starbucks spent nine months trying to make AI inventory counting work. The idea was that employees would walk past shelves, filming with an iPad, and AI from a company called NomadGo would automatically count everything. The company claimed 99% accuracy.
Reality hit hard. “Reuters reported the app often miscounted or mislabeled inventory, including confusing similar milk varieties or failing to recognize them,” Blake noted. Starbucks killed the project. Stores went back to counting by hand.
These failures hit the bottom line. “They were getting product shortages because they thought they had coffee, but didn’t have coffee to sell,” David explained.
Meanwhile, Microsoft discovered that AI coding tools come with a shocking price tag. Despite investing $13 billion in OpenAI and using AI to write 30% of its code, Microsoft had to cut off engineers from these tools because costs exploded. The same thing happened at Uber, where the CTO said they burned through a year’s worth of budgeted tokens in just four months.
The token problem is growing. Blake shared a striking statistic from Forbes: “Anthropic’s annualized net dollar retention exceeds 500%.” That means customers end up spending five times more than they initially expected.
“Nobody knows what they’re buying,” David said. “If I sign up for a monthly plan that gives me 20,000 tokens a month, it feels like enough. And then I’m six days into the month and I have to spend another 40 bucks for more tokens.”
“We’re going to hear a story like this in the next year,” David predicted. “Some firm will say, ‘Our five-person firm spent $300,000 on AI tokens, and we didn’t know it until it was too late.'”
The Small Firm Revolution: XeroForce and AI Architects
While big firms struggle with their business models and AI costs spiral, something interesting is happening with smaller practices. Xero just launched XeroForce, a tool that could change the game.
“It’s a no-code AI agent builder that lets small businesses and accountants automate repetitive financial tasks using plain language, no technical skills required,” David explained. Unlike chatbots that give one-time answers, these are permanent automations that run on schedule.
Blake immediately saw the potential. “Every week, look at all transactions over $75 in any expense account, and then search my email for receipts and attach those receipts to the transactions. That’s a whole category of apps right there.”
“Accountants have engineer brains. You just don’t know how to write code. And if this can let you create ‘permanent’ code that runs routinely for a client inside Xero, it’ll help you scale,” David said, putting it in terms every accountant can relate to.
But tools alone aren’t enough. Firms need someone to manage this transformation. Donnie Shimamoto, CPA and founder and managing director at Intraprise Techknowlogies, calls this role an “AI architect.”
“Every CPA firm that’s big enough should create an AI architect role,” Blake said, comparing it to the cloud transition. “All the leading firms created these technology roles that were not IT. They were basically operations roles.”
An AI architect would handle security reviews, evaluate different tools, monitor token spending, and train the team. Without this role, firms risk security issues or shocking year-end bills.
For young accountants, Blake had direct advice. “If you’re a student or a young accountant and you want a job, learn this AI stuff. Every firm is going to be hiring an AI architect.”
What History Tells Us About What’s Coming
Blake drew a parallel to when electronic spreadsheets arrived. “The number of bookkeepers employed at accounting firms dropped by about half. We lost like a million bookkeepers over a generation,” he said. “What happened? We had more accountants and, in particular, we had a whole new category of job: financial analysts.”
His prediction for AI follows the same pattern. The number of traditional accountants will decline, but new roles will emerge. “Small businesses will be able to afford controllers and CFOs. They’ve always wanted them but could never afford to hire one.”
Both hosts emphasized the importance of experimenting now. David spent Memorial Day building a production assistant that saves him four hours a week. Blake spent two months creating a tool that automatically reconciles bank accounts.
“Don’t try to build anything groundbreaking,” David advised. “Just solve a simple problem that you have to deal with week after week.”
The Bottom Line
The accounting profession is changing fast, but not in the ways many expected. Large firms with private equity backing face serious challenges if they can’t reinvent their business models. AI implementation is proving harder and more expensive than promised. But smaller, agile firms that experiment with new tools and create AI architect roles could gain a huge competitive advantage.
“If you’re a firm with a few dozen people, you can now compete with firms that have hundreds of staff,” Blake said. That’s an opportunity for firms ready to embrace it.
Want to hear the full discussion, including how the hosts are building their own AI tools? Listen to the complete episode of The Accounting Podcast.
