The US government just declared itself insolvent. AI agents are completing tax returns without human intervention. And the accounting profession is caught between these two massive disruptions.
In Episode 481 of The Accounting Podcast, hosts Blake Oliver and David Leary opened with a bombshell that somehow flew under the mainstream media radar. The Treasury Department’s own financial statements show the US is $42 trillion in the red, and that’s before counting Social Security and Medicare obligations. They then dove into an equally seismic shift with guest Kenji Kuramoto, founder of Acuity and newly appointed Managing Partner in Residence at AI company Basis, exploring how artificial intelligence is transforming every corner of the accounting world.
Deficit Spending Just Keeps Going
“It’s official. We are insolvent,” David announced at the start of the episode, referencing the Treasury’s 2024 financial statements. They show $6 trillion in total assets against nearly $48 trillion in total liabilities. That $42 trillion hole doesn’t even include the $88 trillion in unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations sitting off the balance sheet.
“Imagine a family making $52,000 that owes $1.3 million in a line of credit,” Blake said, putting the crisis in household terms.
Making matters worse, the Government Accountability Office issued a disclaimer of opinion for the 29th consecutive year, essentially saying it can’t even verify the accuracy of the numbers because the Department of Defense has never passed an audit.
“This is the reason a huge number of people voted for Trump,” David said. “They wanted to stop deficit spending, and it just keeps going.”
Meanwhile, AI Is Eating the Accounting Profession
While the government’s books are falling apart, AI companies are racing to automate the work of keeping everyone else’s books together. TaxGPT announced an AI agent capable of completing 1040 returns from start to finish without a preparer touching a keyboard or mouse. The tool works with existing web-based portals and tax prep software, pulling in W-2s, 1099s, and other source documents, then having a review agent double-check everything.
“Why go after tax pros?” David asked. “Just get in bed with the portal companies and go after TurboTax.”
Kenji, who recently joined Basis after selling Acuity and taking a year off, described watching AI agents handle complex accounting work that made him come out of retirement. “I saw an agent handle complex payroll entries like booking the GL entry, creating an accrual because the pay period didn’t align with month-end, posting the reversing entry for the following month, and building a complete set of work papers,” he said. “I saw this last year, and I was like, wait, what?”
The flood of AI announcements kept coming throughout the episode:
- Ramp launched an accounting agent that auto-codes transactions down to the line-item level on invoices, claiming to save finance teams 40+ hours per month
- Xero announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic to integrate Claude AI directly into its platform
- Canopy launched a bookkeeping module with AI that continuously reviews books and flags issues in real time
- Double (formerly Keeper) released AI Journal Entries that can handle complex, repetitive entries from source documents
- BILL announced agents for invoice coding, W-9 collection, and automated vendor payment responses
“Everyone thought we were boring,” Kenji said. “Look at this. All these Y Combinator companies spinning up and fundraising announcements and agents everywhere. Come on. Exciting.”
The Skills Gap Is Already Here
The shift is showing up in real time in hiring data. In 2023, only 18% of accounting job postings mentioned AI skills. Now it’s 30%, a 67% increase.
“The real-world requirement is probably 50%,” David argued. “People are behind on updating their postings.”
But a better question is what happens to the business model. Kenji described how at Acuity, the bottleneck was always people. Plenty of companies needed help with their books, but you couldn’t hire enough accountants to serve them cost-effectively. AI agents break that constraint. One highly efficient bookkeeper might handle 45 to 60 clients today. “Will one person eventually be able to handle 200 clients?” David asked.
The threat isn’t just from other firms. An article on Payments.com found that everyday taxpayers are already using ChatGPT and Gemini to do their taxes before ever talking to a professional. The reason is “speed and simplicity,” David explained. “AI can explain tax concepts, organize the documents, and suggest deductions. These are things they’re not getting from their tax professional.”
Are Tokens the New Billable Hour?
As AI cuts the time needed to complete work, firms are scrambling to figure out how to price their services. Bloomberg Law reported that PwC, KPMG, and RSM are all exploring alternatives to hourly billing.
“This may be the thing that finally gets us there,” Kenji said about moving away from billable hours. “If I just used AI to help me get my work done and I’m cutting down my billable hours, I’m losing revenue.”
“You can bill for tokens,” David suggested, offering a provocative alternative.
He then vented about Earmark’s own token consumption across multiple platforms, including Claude, GitHub Copilot, Retool, ChatGPT, and more. “Two days ago, an automation stopped working,” he said. “We spent five plus people hours trying to increase our tokens and get the automation working again.”
The problem is, token costs are opaque and growing. David introduced two terms gaining traction: “token anxiety,” or not knowing what you’re being charged for, and “AI FinOps,” managing AI costs across platforms.
“There’s an opportunity here for firms to become a token expert and offer it as a service,” David suggested.
Blake’s take was more pragmatic. “It’s better than timesheets, that’s for sure.”
The Window Is Closing
The government that sets the rules can’t even audit its own books while declaring itself insolvent. Meanwhile, AI agents are automating core accounting work at a pace that makes the shift from paper to computers look gradual.
“These agents are actually now becoming a component of our workforce,” Kenji said. “You’ve got accountants and you’ve got agents. This is the future state we’re moving into.”
For practitioners, it’s clear that the tools to dramatically expand your capacity exist right now. But so does the threat of clients going straight to AI and bypassing your firm entirely. The window to adapt is open, but it won’t stay that way for long.
As Blake noted about current AI pricing, “When Uber was new, everything was really, really cheap.” The subsidies won’t last forever. To thrive, firms need to figure out the new economics now, whether that’s value pricing, token billing, or something else entirely. Those that don’t may find themselves as obsolete as the government’s ability to balance its own books.
Listen to the full episode for the complete discussion, including deeper dives into specific AI capabilities and Kenji’s firsthand perspective from inside an AI-native company.
