Small businesses are navigating a unique economic moment in 2025. They’re still serving customers and meeting market demands, but they’re doing it while managing changing costs and ongoing policy uncertainty. Despite these challenges, they’re not shutting down or laying people off. Instead, they’re finding creative ways to adapt.
Nicholas Tremper, senior economist at Gusto, shared this insight in a recent Earmark Podcast episode. Tremper tracks data from hundreds of thousands of small businesses through Gusto’s platform, so he has a unique view into how small businesses respond to today’s economic challenges.
The picture Tremper paints is more complex than the headlines suggest. While businesses face real pressures from tariffs, labor shortages, and economic uncertainty, many thrive by combining two essential strategies: utilizing AI to boost productivity and offering more appealing benefits to attract workers. For accounting professionals, this creates new opportunities to become strategic advisors rather than just compliance providers.
Economic Headwinds Create Planning Challenges
In the current economic environment, several interconnected challenges reshape how small businesses operate. Tariffs have reached a weighted average of about 18% across all imports—a significant jump from single digits in previous years. While this level is manageable for most businesses, the bigger problem is uncertainty.
“Small businesses don’t necessarily know how to think about what their costs will be three or six months from now,” Tremper explains. This uncertainty affects everything from inventory planning to contract bidding. For example, if you’re a retailer trying to stock up for the holidays or a contractor giving price estimates months in advance, not knowing future costs makes planning nearly impossible.
The labor market adds another layer of complexity. Unemployment sits at a relatively low 4.3%, but the July jobs report showed weakness with only 73,000 jobs added versus 100,000 expected. More concerning was the massive downward revision of 258,000 jobs from previous estimates for May and June. (Updated numbers released after the show was recorded are +22,000 jobs for August.)
This reflects what Tremper calls an economy that’s “idling”—staying in place rather than growing or contracting. Businesses aren’t laying people off, but they’re not hiring aggressively either. The combination of an aging population and tighter immigration policies creates structural labor shortages, especially in construction and hospitality sectors that traditionally relied on both groups.
These pressures force businesses to delay growth plans. As Tremper puts it, “You may not be able to work on that fourth development. You may have to stop at the three.” When you can’t reliably access more labor, expansion is much more complicated.
Entrepreneurship Boom Continues Despite Challenges
Despite these headwinds, there’s been an entrepreneurship renaissance in the United States. The number of new business applications skyrocketed during the summer of 2020, and as of June 2025, new businesses were still 57% higher than June 2019 levels.
The resilience of small business formation helps explain why the economy has remained relatively stable. “One of the reasons that the economy has been so resilient is because these new businesses have been bringing creative ideas to market,” Tremper notes.
What’s particularly interesting is who’s starting these businesses. For the first time, almost half of new businesses were started by women, compared to 30% in 2019. There’s also been an increase in businesses started by nonwhite entrepreneurs, showing entrepreneurship is spreading across demographics.
These new business owners face similar challenges regardless of their background. When asked about their top three challenges, they consistently mention cash flow, time management, and acquiring customers and employees. At least two of these are areas where accountants can provide significant value.
AI Boosts Productivity Without Replacing Workers
Here’s a statistic that might surprise you: 95% of small businesses using AI aren’t cutting their workforce. Instead, they’re making their existing employees more productive. This contradicts the common narrative that AI inevitably leads to job losses.
The productivity gains are substantial. According to Gusto’s research, 80% of small businesses using AI report productivity increases of 20% or more. But the key insight isn’t just that AI works; it’s how it works.
“Rather than an AI doing somebody’s job, what the person’s doing is they’re like, I’m the expert and you’re going to be a teammate to help me accomplish this quickly,” Tremper explains.
Businesses use AI for routine tasks like summarizing information and conducting market research—the necessary work that doesn’t require deep expertise. Meanwhile, humans focus on applying their knowledge, making judgment calls, and building client relationships.
This approach creates an unexpected benefit in hiring. Businesses that allow employees to use AI report 45% less difficulty finding new workers. It turns out people want to work for companies that give them tools to focus on meaningful work instead of tedious tasks.
The most successful AI implementations happen when businesses develop clear plans about when to use human expertise versus when to leverage AI for efficiency. This strategic approach creates a cycle where better tools lead to more satisfied employees, which makes companies more attractive to potential hires.
Benefits Become Essential for Talent Competition
While AI tackles productivity, smart businesses simultaneously invest in benefits to attract and retain workers. In today’s tight labor market, benefits are competitive necessities.
Offering healthcare benefits increases employee retention by 40% in the first year. Retirement plans show similar effects. What’s interesting is that half of the businesses offering retirement benefits don’t do any company matching. They get significant retention benefits just by offering the benefit.
This creates opportunities for businesses willing to think strategically about their total compensation packages. While competitors focus solely on wages—an expensive and difficult race to win—smart businesses create comprehensive value propositions that extend beyond the paycheck.
For accountants, a communication gap represents a missed opportunity. Fifty percent of small businesses don’t know if their accountant offers benefits guidance, and two-thirds of those simply never thought to ask. When small businesses receive benefits guidance from their accountants, 60% say it influences their benefit decisions. For businesses under two years old, that number jumps to 85%.
Accountants as Strategic Partners
This economic environment creates new opportunities for accounting professionals to evolve beyond traditional compliance work. The share of businesses reporting productivity gains from their accountants has jumped dramatically—from 52% in 2021 to two-thirds in 2025.
“Small businesses view their accountants as business partners. These aren’t number crunchers. These are people who are actively helping me figure out what I’m going to do next,” Tremper explains.
Businesses navigating today’s challenges need more than bookkeeping and tax prep. They need guidance on cash flow analysis, scenario planning, and strategic decision-making. When small businesses can’t predict their costs or easily access more labor, having an advisor who can help them model different scenarios is invaluable.
Cash flow, time management, and hiring are all areas where accountants can provide significant value. Whether it’s helping a client switch to upfront billing to improve cash flow or advising on benefits strategies to attract workers, these services directly address the problems keeping business owners up at night.
Interest rates remaining higher than business owners would like make this financial guidance even more critical. As Tremper notes, “It’s so important to really understand the return on investment on those borrowing costs.” Businesses need help evaluating whether investments will generate enough return to justify higher borrowing costs.
Cautious Optimism for Small Business Future
Despite the challenges, Tremper remains optimistic about small businesses’ prospects based on their track record of resilience. Over the past five years, small businesses have navigated a pandemic, an inflation crisis with rates hitting 8-9%, a major labor market reshuffling, and now uncertain tariff policies. Through it all, more people keep choosing to start businesses.
“They’ve got this grit, this creativity,” Tremper observes. “These things make me most optimistic about small businesses.”
The economic fundamentals, while softening, aren’t collapsing. Consumer spending continues to increase, albeit more slowly. People are choosier about purchases, but demand hasn’t fallen off a cliff. This provides a foundation for businesses that can adapt to changing conditions.
The businesses succeeding in this environment understand that sustainable competitive advantage comes from combining cutting-edge tools with meaningful employee value propositions. They’re not choosing between technology and people; they’re investing in both simultaneously and strategically to create resilience against future uncertainty. By maximizing productivity per employee and creating strong retention through benefits and culture, these businesses position themselves to weather whatever economic storms may come.
For accounting professionals, this transformation represents a challenge and an opportunity. Clients need more strategic guidance than ever, and they’re willing to pay for and value that guidance in ways they haven’t before. The firms that master this new approach can build sustainable competitive advantages that compound over time.
Listen to the full conversation with Nich Tremper to discover specific strategies for advising your clients through this period of transformation and learn how to position your practice as an indispensable strategic partner in their success.