Caleb Newquist opens this episode with a confession. He spent about four hours online researching whether a raccoon could beat a goose in a fight. His verdict is the raccoon would probably win, though one Reddit thread made “a very compelling argument for the goose.” The trouble is that the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) lists “excessive internet browsing” as a behavioral red flag for fraud.
In this solo episode of Oh My Fraud, Caleb works through the ACFE’s 2026 Occupational Fraud Report to the Nations, which comes out every two years. (He and Greg Kyte covered the 2024 edition in Episode 58.) Tips uncover the most fraud, and Caleb suspects luck plays a bigger role than the numbers show. Nearly half of cases never reach law enforcement, so some fraudsters with clean records likely move on to new jobs and do it again.
A huge report about a tiny slice of fraud
The ACFE received more than 10,000 survey responses and used 2,402 of them. Those cases cover 143 countries and $3.4 billion in losses. To make the cut, a fraud had to be detected, investigated by a Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE) and completed, with no open cases. It also had to be the respondent’s single largest case. The report doesn’t include frauds nobody found and frauds a non-CFE handled.
The ACFE estimates worldwide occupational fraud at $5.5 trillion a year. That figure is a best guess, based on the assumption that organizations lose 5% of revenue to fraud. Even if it’s close, the report captures less than one-tenth of 1% of it.
“To say that’s a drop in the bucket is a flagrant disrespect to drops,” Caleb says. Still, the data comes from a credible organization, so it’s worth using. Just remember it describes a sliver of the problem.
Tips, dumb luck, and the 2% auditors
So how does fraud get found? Mostly because someone speaks up. Tips account for 43% of detections, three times the rate of the next method, internal audit. More tips now arrive through web forms or email than by phone. “The hotlines have gone online,” Caleb notes.
Another 4% of cases were caught by accident. Caleb thinks luck plays a bigger role than that. He suspects plenty of internal audit and management review catches involved someone stumbling onto something during their normal duties. Nobody calls that an accident, “but that’s still kind of lucky.”
External auditors caught just 2%. “Greg’s favorite external auditors are two percentage points less smart than fraudsters are dumb,” Caleb says. Auditors say their audits aren’t designed to find fraud. Still, they must obtain reasonable assurance that the financial statements are free of material misstatement “whether caused by fraud or error.”
Materiality means something is important enough that a reasonable investor would make a different decision. Caleb points to the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 99, which says auditors can’t dismiss an item on its dollar size alone. By that logic, he says, you could argue any fraud is material.
Surveillance and monitoring caught another 2%. That’s strange at a time when employers track mouse movements, badge scans and billable hours. Confession came last at 1%. “I look forward to the day when confessions are tied with external audits in fraud detection,” Caleb says.
Controls shrink losses but don’t stop fraud
The report’s flashiest prevention stat appears on page 39. The mere presence of an anti-fraud control cuts losses by 37%. Caleb isn’t impressed. “If a loss occurs, the control didn’t prevent the fraud.”
Fraud awareness training has a similar problem. “See something, say something” assumes people know what they’re looking at. Fraud doesn’t look like a guy loading fertilizer into a box truck. “Fraud is committed by dorks in frumpy business casual clothes or fast-talking deal makers, or the pastor of a megachurch,” Caleb says.
The basics are often missing too:
- A lack of internal controls was the primary weakness in one-third of cases
- A quarter of organizations with more than 100 employees have no anti-fraud policy, yet 95% have a code of conduct
Red flags aren’t a reliable backstop either. Sixteen percent of perpetrators showed no behavioral red flags. And gambling appears zero times in the report’s roughly 25,000 words.
The stakes rise with collusion and seniority. Median losses run $55,000 with one perpetrator, $125,000 with two and $324,000 with three or more. Frauds by male owners and executives have a $500,000 median.
Caught, then quietly released
Getting caught often doesn’t mean much. Only 75% of non-owner perpetrators were terminated. Six percent received a written or verbal warning, which Caleb translates as “hey, knock that shit off.” Four percent got no punishment at all.
Owners and executives fare even better. Only 52% were terminated, and 12% faced no punishment. “If you’re an owner of a business, it’s basically a coin flip,” Caleb says.
Some perpetrators simply leave. Jim Hammes from Episode 120 was confronted with evidence of his fraud in a meeting, walked out and never came back. Nathan Mueller, interviewed in Episode 28, excused himself to the bathroom mid-confrontation and didn’t return.
Even lawsuits can backfire. In 13% of civil cases, the result favored the perpetrator. Caleb wonders whether Lionel Hutz represented all the defrauded companies.
Then there’s the biggest gap. Forty-six percent of cases weren’t referred to law enforcement. Of those, 35% cited fear of bad press, and 51% felt internal punishment was sufficient. Caleb compares it to the HBO show, Succession. “If Kendall Roy and a caterer drive into a pond and only the caterer drowns, then that’s totally fine. Logan will clean things up from here.”
Caleb’s bigger worry is what happens next. Eighty-eight percent of perpetrators had no prior record. It’s safe to assume not all the unreported ones retire. Instead, many are “just out there walking around getting a different job, working somewhere else where they could commit fraud again.”
A clean record proves less than you think
A spotless background check tells you little when so many frauds never create a record. The lessons for accountants are:
- Invest in tip channels, and make sure people know where to report
- Write an explicit anti-fraud policy instead of relying on a code of conduct.
- Train staff on what fraud actually looks like, frumpy business casual and all
- Refer cases to law enforcement so the next employer has a record to find
Otherwise, as Caleb puts it, “Not good. Really not good.” Listen to the full episode for more of Caleb’s takes, and earn CPE credit through Earmark while you’re at it.
