Intuit just reported $21.4 billion in annual revenue, 14% growth, and about $4.5 billion in profit. Wall Street punished the stock anyway.
On Episode 503 of The Accounting Podcast, hosts Blake Oliver and David Leary examine why with Hector Garcia, a CPA, firm owner, and QuickBooks educator. They also speak with Britten Ratcliff, an accounting student and public member of the New Mexico Public Accountancy Board.
Their discussion points to a larger shift. AI is speeding up work inside accounting and tax software, but it’s also changing where pricing power, value, and competitive advantage come from.
TurboTax Faces a Pricing Squeeze
Intuit’s results don’t look like a crisis at first. TurboTax Live revenue rose 37% and now represents 53% of TurboTax revenue. But Intuit forecast only 9% to 10% companywide growth for fiscal 2027, with TurboTax revenue expected to grow just 2% to 3%.
Hector sees the stock decline as part of a broader market reaction to AI’s effect on software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies. Intuit’s price-to-earnings ratio fell sharply from its July 2025 peak, following a path similar to Adobe’s. “The market is reacting to the impact that AI has on SaaS,” he said.
There is also a direct pricing problem. Intuit acknowledged that it’s losing do-it-yourself filers to cheaper competitors. Price is now the leading reason customers leave TurboTax.
Blake estimated that an AI agent could complete a simple return using about 25 cents of tokens. That makes prices of $100 or more difficult to defend, especially when startups can use AI instead of rebuilding decades of rules-based software. David remained skeptical that millions of taxpayers will quickly abandon a familiar product for a chatbot, however. For many households, taxes are too important to make that switch casually.
Hector suggested a barbell strategy: offer more free filing at the low end while moving customers with greater needs toward premium help or Intuit’s small-business products. In his view, Schedule C filers could become customers for QuickBooks Payments and Payroll. He noted that QuickBooks generates about $12 billion in revenue, compared with roughly $5 billion from TurboTax.
That strategy connects with Intuit’s tests of QuickBooks Free and QuickBooks Lite. The free version allows a few invoices each month and encourages users to adopt payments. Both products can serve as stepping stones to the $38-per-month Simple Start plan.
Human-Assisted AI May Be Only a Bridge
Lower prices create another problem: human support is expensive.
Hector described a conversation with a TurboTax seasonal worker about her hours, pay, and time spent answering customer questions. His rough calculation suggested that a $100 return requiring 90 minutes of phone support leaves little or no margin.
A more sustainable model, he argued, could charge little or nothing for AI-based preparation. Customers would interact with a chatbot while tax professionals reviewed the conversation and return behind the scenes. Full access to a professional would cost much more.
“I honestly think it’s a bridge. I don’t think that’s a strategy,” Hector said of the current AI-plus-expert model. He expects a clearer split between low-cost automation and much more expensive professional service.
Thomson Reuters Is Building Around Trusted Data
While Intuit wrestles with pricing, Thomson Reuters is taking a different approach to AI. It purchased an open-weight model and trained it on 175 years of proprietary material from Westlaw, Practical Law, Checkpoint, and Reuters.
That paywalled content includes analysis created by subject-matter experts. Thomson Reuters also brought in partner-level practitioners to build grading standards. Lawyers spent thousands of hours comparing outputs, while 1,500 attorney editors helped identify errors.
The company reported a 0.914 score for following instructions. In deep research, the model scored 0.83 for factuality, compared with 0.65 and 0.68 for two leading models using the open web. This measure tested whether claims were supported by their cited sources.
“I want dumb AI, like AI that only knows accounting,” David said, summarizing the appeal. Blake offered a better label: a specialist that performs well in one field and declines tasks outside it.
For Hector, adoption comes down to two questions: Is client data safe, and are answers grounded in authoritative information? Yet quality alone may not be enough. He argued that professional AI should be built directly into tools firms already trust, such as Microsoft 365, rather than forcing accountants to connect and manage separate agents.
AI-Native ERPs Still Must Overcome Switching Costs
The same tension appears in the ERP market. Rillet raised $100 million at a $1 billion valuation with about 600 customers. During the same period, private equity firm Silver Lake reportedly pursued Workday at a $51 billion valuation.
David contrasted the valuations to show that major investors still see value in established systems. Hector added that Intuit Enterprise Suite reached $145 million in revenue within two years without raising outside capital for the product. He argued that Intuit, like Thomson Reuters, benefits from years of customer and transaction data.
Blake countered that companies won’t replace an ERP merely to get a better general ledger. They may switch if automation lets them avoid major hiring costs. Rillet’s fundraising announcement claimed that some customers operate large finance functions with only a few people or close their books in three days. The hosts noted that those claims had not been independently verified.
Tokens Could Become a Direct Cost
This leads to a new accounting question: How should businesses classify AI spending?
Three years ago, few companies had separate budgets for ChatGPT, Claude, or AI tokens. Hector said executives now want that spending to grow when it can reduce labor costs. He predicted that ERPs with strong built-in AI could win by replacing separate chatbot subscriptions.
He also argued that tokens may shift from fixed software overhead to a variable cost tied to sales and production. “All of a sudden, we have a brand-new direct cost that never existed,” he said. Blake suggested that accountants may need new cost accounting methods to track it.
Efficiency Cannot Replace Professional Development
The cost of automation is not limited to software budgets. Britten Ratcliff said young professionals worry that AI and private equity-backed efficiency efforts are eliminating the entry-level work that once taught people how accounting operates.
Reviewing last year’s audit file or completing basic analyst tasks may be repetitive, but those assignments build context and judgment. If firms automate them, they’ll need new ways to teach junior employees.
Britten sees a similar gap in accounting education. He took cost accounting before gaining any exposure to manufacturing, and he criticized homework systems that look little like real financial statements. Students need technical skills, he argued, but they also need to understand how businesses work.
That may be the episode’s central message. AI can lower costs and reshape software, but accounting firms still compete through trust, judgment, and business understanding. As Hector put it, the claim that AI can do everything accountants do is still a narrative, and the profession doesn’t have to surrender to it.
Listen to the full discussion on Episode 503 of The Accounting Podcast.